Once upon a time... when life moved at a slower pace and the world seemed a simpler place, even the movement of money was easier to understand. And if you've ever wondered"why," it's because, in the past, money was linked to gold. Simply put, banknotes could be exchanged for gold, and money printing was generally constrained by gold reserves, which imposed stricter monetary discipline.
Today, the outlook has changed, and the movements on the gold market in recent weeks show us that even the "safest asset" on the market can hold surprises. To find out exactly what these surprises are, we invite you to join us for agoldenepisodeofTheMacRO Zone.
FROM CURRENCY TO FINANCIAL ASSET
Historically, gold has functioned as currency precisely because it is rare, durable, divisible, and universally accepted. The 20th century marked a gradual shift from gold-based systems (including the gold standard) to fiat regimes (fiat monetary regimes are monetary systems in which the currency has no intrinsic value and is not convertible into gold, silver, etc.) and, subsequently, to a world dominated by credit and central banks.
The decisive break came with the suspension of the dollar's convertibility into gold under theBretton Woods system, in what has gone down in history as The Nixon Shock, the day when gold was transformed from the formal "anchor" of the currency into a freely traded financial asset on the market.
〽️ This moment was the change that createdmodern gold: an asset with a price determined by supply and demand, macro expectations, and flows, traded globally, in which its monetary role survives mainly through investor behavior and central bank decisions.
WHY GOLD IS CONSIDERED A SAFE HAVEN
At the portfolio level, gold is often treated asa diversification tool or asahedge against financial losses or extreme risks. It is classified as a historical safe haven due to the following characteristics:
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ENDORSED BY CENTRAL BANKS
One of the clearest signals comes from central banks, which use gold todiversify their reserves andasa tool for credibility in times of tension. Over the past five years, the pace of acquisitions has been remarkable, according to the World Gold Council, they have consistently purchased large quantities of gold in 2021 (726 tons), 2022 (1,037 tons), 2023 (1,082 tons), 2024 (1,092 tons), and 2025 (863 tons). Analyzing these figures, we can deduce that, at a time when geopolitical tensions are exacerbated by economic fragmentation and high-debt states, gold is becoming an asset of credibility.
ROMANIA
For Romania, the strategy is different and is based on quantitative stability. More specifically, the NBR has maintained a constant reserve since2007 (103.6 tons), but what has changed dramatically here is the value.
Thus, while in 2016 the national bank's gold reserve was worth €3.66 billion, in 2026 it will reach €14.22 billion. In practice, we are talking about amultiplication of the value by about3.3 times in 10 years for the same physical stock.
MOVEMENTS ON THE GOLD MARKET
Gold, expressed by the XAUUSD quote (price/ounce of gold, expressed in dollars), has gone through one of the most tumultuous periods in its modern history over the last 12 months. We can see that while the metal is traditionally perceived as a defensive asset with low volatility and a stabilizing role in portfolios, recent data shows a transition to an asset marked by extreme movements, high risk, rapid repositioning, and high volatility.
Looking at the figures, gold's performance over the last year is staggering: at the beginning of 2025, it stood at $2,856/ounce, and at the beginning of February, it closed at $4,894/ounce. Basically, we are looking at anannual return of approximately 71.36%, with an annual range of nearly 90% between the low (USD 2,857) and the high (USD 5,417).
For a safe haven asset, such a performance is exceptional and suggests not only growing demand, but also active participation by speculative capital, attracted bymomentum andrapidly changing macroeconomic expectations.
GOLD PRICE TREND
Aug 2025 - Feb 2026 | USD/ounce
- Aug - Sep 2025: The price rises slowly, almost linearly, which is a sign of steady accumulation.
- Sep - Oct 2025: The slope steepens due to heightened geopolitical tensions (instability, sanctions, US-China trade tensions) that have weakened the dollar and prompted central banks to purchase gold at record levels.
- Oct - Dec 2025: The price fluctuates but does not return to previous levels. Pressure on the US dollar and interest rate cuts by the Fed motivate investors to move towards safer assets.
- Jan - Feb 2026: On January 28, gold hits an all-time high, with a major spike to $5,417.21/ounce. It reaches its highest level since 1976 and thus repositioned itself as a geopolitical anchor in an extremely volatile context. The correction comes with the intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed chair.
WHY SO MUCH VOLATILITY?
In short, because I saw how several forces were acting simultaneously:
- Structural Demand
- In 2025, total demand for gold, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions (direct, unmediated exchanges between two parties), exceeded the 5,000-ton threshold for the first time.
- Central banks continued to be heavy buyers, with purchases more moderate than in 2024 but still high compared to the average (863 tons of gold).
- The Safe-Haven Bid
- Amid international political tensions, investors tend to flee risk by selling volatile assets (stocks, crypto) and moving money into gold to preserve the value of their portfolios.
- When such a moment arises (as we saw at the beginning of 2026), several investors meet in the market, at which point the price tends to jump suddenly.
- US monetary policy
- The extreme volatility at the beginning of this year also came from US monetary policy and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Announcements and speculation surrounding Kevin Warsh's nomination to head the Fed triggered a rapid repositioning of the dollar and rates, and gold, already in a state of technical overheating, reacted strongly.
- The extreme volatility at the beginning of this year also came from US monetary policy and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. Announcements and speculation surrounding Kevin Warsh's nomination to head the Fed triggered a rapid repositioning of the dollar and rates, and gold, already in a state of technical overheating, reacted strongly.
A Battle of Hawks and Doves
An analysis of recent months and the past year shows that gold has performed extremely well in terms of returns, but with an unusually high cost of risk. This combination of strong trend and high volatility defines the essence of the period under review and explains why gold in recent months can no longer be viewed exclusively through the lens of its traditional role as a safe haven, but also as an asset deeply influenced by global financial dynamics and the microstructure of modern markets.
Looking ahead, gold remains caught between two forces. On the one hand, structural demand for diversification of reserves and appetite for real assets in a complex geopolitical context provide support. On the other hand, at very high price levels and after sharp increases, the market becomes vulnerable to repricing, a strengthening dollar, or the defusing of perceived risks.